Final Week on the Campaign Trail

October 27, 2010

Republican Jeff Perry of Sandwich, left, accursed Democrat William Keating of Quincy, right, are running for the 10th Congressional seat. Cape Cod Times Photos

            With only a week left until Election Day arrives, many times the polls and political websites are a great way to predict election results. In terms of election forecasts, the New York Times Race Rating describes Massachusetts’ 10^th Congressional District as a “tossup” race. The FiveThirtyEight is statistical model that I used in my research which takes into account very reputable polls like the UNH, the MassINC Polling Group, and NMB Research polls to predict election results. The FiveThirtyEight model predicts that this district has a 59% chance of a Democratic win which would mean success for the Democratic candidate Bill Keating. Based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising and past election returns and other indicators, there is a prediction of how the district will vote on November 2. Right now, as of October 26, the FiveThirtyEight Forecast is projecting the vote at 49.3% for Keating and 47.8% for Republican candidate Jeff Perry in terms of Projected Election results. Keating has a +1.5 lead over Perry. These numbers do a great job of showing just how close this election is going to be. With a race that has the opportunity to go either way, every single vote is going to be important.

In terms of the chance the candidates have for winning the seat, Keating has a 58.1% lead over Perry’s 42.0%. These figures are based on the chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment. Simply stated, this is the percentage chance that the candidate wins the race. These numbers reflect a very different election forecast because they are predicting the election in a different way. In my opinion the projected vote election results are a better way of judging who will take this district.

With only six days left until their fate is determined, Perry and Keating are spending their last week busily rallying to get voters to the polls. If the election forecasts are correct, Democratic candidate Bill Keating will be representing the people of the Massachusetts 10^th Congressional District. But with a race this close only time will tell!

Civility Takes Center Stage in Debate

The candidates for the 10th Congressional District, from left, James Sheets, Maryanne Lewis, Joseph van Nes, William Keating and Jeffrey Perry, participate in Thursday night's debate at Cape Cod Community College. The event was sponsored by the League of Women Voters and the Cape Cod Times. Cape Cod Times/Ron Schloerb

October 19, 2010

           Considering this week we were free to choose what to write our weekly entry on, I decided it was the perfect opportunity to talk about the debate that took place on Thursday October 15. The debate took place in West Barnstable at Cape Cod Community College which is interesting to me because it is the town that I live in.  

           According to the Cape Cod Times, the President of the League of Women Voters for Cape Cod asked the candidates for civility and all five of them cooperatively complied. The Republican candidate Jeff Perry and Democratic candidate William Keating set only inches apart. But topics that are normally up for discussion like debate over Perry’s controversial past as a police officer and Keating’s campaign contributions were never brought up.

            Perry and Keating were joined in the debate by three candidates running as Independents for the 10^th Congressional District of Massachusetts, Maryanne Lewis of Scituate, James Sheets of Quincy, and Joseph van Nes of Martha’s Vineyard. This was a rare opportunity for van Nes and Sheets to participate in the debate because they had been barred from other forums. Although there were a few jabs at one another, it was nowhere near the intense animosity that normally dominates the debate stage. Most of the drama occurred before the candidates even arrived at the forum, when the league officials asked the supporters to take off their buttons and turn their t-shirts inside out because they were attempting to “maintain a bipartisan atmosphere.”

            The candidates shared and discussed their views on things like Cape wind, unemployment, Social Security, and Cape Cod’s wastewater issues. Most of the candidates agreed that the federal government should assist the Cape communities by funding new sewer systems and solutions to clean up the bays.

            The two party candidates’ opinions varied on the Bush-era tax cuts. Democratic candidate Keating said he wants to restore the tax cuts for everyone, but the top 2% of income earners. He also wants to close military bases in Eastern Europe in order to start decreasing the national debt. Republican candidate Perry on the other hand, stated that Congress should’ve reinstated those cuts before it adjourned. This made it clear that the two party candidates’ views on major issues differ greatly.  With just a few weeks left we are getting down to the wire!

Democrat William Keating and Republican Jeffrey Perry shake hands at the end of Thursday night's 10th Congressional District forum at Cape Cod Community College. The independent candidates in the race, Maryanne Lewis, James Sheets and Joseph van Nes, also participated in the debate.Cape Cod Times/Ron Schloerb

Voter Behavior & Incumbency

Jeff Perry, the Republican candidate for the Massachusetts 10th congressional district, left, and Democratic House candidate Bill Keating, take part in a debate at the New England Cable News, NECN, network studio in Newton, Mass., Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2010. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

 

October 14, 2010

The race for the 10^th Congressional District is an interesting one in the way that there is no incumbent advantage. Because there is no incumbent it creates an opportunity from the start for both candidates to prevail. Therefore, the two party candidates running for this district Republican candidate Jeff Perry and Democratic candidate William Keating have an equal chance to win the election!

            On Wednesday, October 13 these two candidates squared off in a debate on NECN, New England Cable News network studio in Newton, Massachusetts. The three independent candidates weren’t invited to participate in this debate that was hosted by NECN’s Broadside with Jim Braude. One of the independent candidates, Maryanne Lewis tried to show up at the studio but she was turned away. Even so, she claimed she would be victorious in this race because of the opening she has due to Perry and Keating’s constant fighting. She claimed, “The voters are completely disenfranchised with our current two-party system” and that “they feel the nominees will toe party lines and will adhere to a national partisan agenda.”

            Inside the studio, Keating brought up the issue of Perry’s character and his incident as a Wareham police sergeant which I discussed last week during campaign scandals. But Perry fired back by telling the host Braude that he made no material misrepresentations on his 2007 application before the Massachusetts Board of Bar Examiners, even though police and court records show that he did not initiate the investigation into the officer as he claimed in his answers on that application. He said that he "disclosed all material facts and, at the end of this, it's all political mudslinging."

Perry shot back at Keating by raising the issue of campaign contributions. He discussed how Keating was given a $1,545 campaign donation by a defense attorney that was representing a man who was being prosecuted on an attempted murder charge by the Norfolk County District Attorney’s office. This is controversial because Keating is the District Attorney of this county so it is sketchy as to why he would be receiving funds from someone on the “other side.” But instead of directly responding to Perry’s accusation, Keating flipped it around and asked why Perry, who is a partner in a law firm that does some criminal work, gave donations to the district attorneys on the Cape and Islands and in Plymouth County. Perry simply responded by asking “I gave money to the DA?” State records show that Perry gave to both the Plymouth County and the Cape & Islands district attorney.

A race with no incumbent candidate creates an intense battle for this district. Clearly there are a lot of issues like this hidden under the rug and these political debates will definitely continue to shed light on them! SOURCE

Cape Wind & Campaign Strategy

October 8, 2010

             Campaign strategy plays a large role in the election process for any candidate. Campaign strategies include the plans that one has to put them at some sort of advantage over the other candidate(s). This approach can be formulated in a variety of ways and many times it gets very heated on the campaign trail. All five of the candidates running for Massachusetts 10^th Congressional District have their own campaign strategies that they think will help secure their chance at taking this district!

            I figured I would take this week to talk about one of the candidate’s campaign strategies. The Republican Jeff Perry has been focusing on the issue of the Cape Wind project to help gain support in his campaign. On Friday, on the shores of Craigville Beach, which I am proud to say is my favorite beach; Perry stated that the Cape Wind project is a “job killer.” He also said that he would do whatever he can to make sure the project doesn’t go forward. Members of the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound were holding anti-wind farm signs nearby him on the beach.

            The reason why this is important is because Perry’s position on Cape Wind is very different to the Democratic candidates William Keating’s view on the issue. According to the Cape Cod Times, Keating started out the campaign opposed to the wind farm but he now supports it. He said he initially opposed the project because of computer images he saw that showed what it would look like. But his position on Cape Wind didn’t exactly “go” with his view that the country needed to stop depending so much on oil. Keating said that Cape Wind and renewable energy projects like Mass Maritime Academy and Woods Hole research would give Cape Cod the opportunity to become a leader in green jobs. On the other hand, Perry claims that the Cape Wind project would drain the economy. For instance, electricity for a small grocery store would increase about $500 a month if the Department of Public Utilities gives the “green light” on this project.

            There are many issues that arise on the campaign trail. Campaign strategy serves as a way for the candidates to voice their opinions and shape how they’re going to model their movement. Candidates Jeff Perry and William Keating have used their opposing views on things like the Cape Wind project in order for each of them to individually gain support on the different sides of the spectrum.