Campaign Financing

December 3, 2010

            It has been an interesting journey to get to this point. I can’t believe this will be my final blog entry! In conclusion, I figured I would discuss an important aspect of the campaign trail that I hadn’t previously had a chance to touch upon, campaign financing. Campaign finance refers to the fundraising and spending that political candidates do in their election campaigns. Candidates often devote substantial time and effort raising money to finance campaigns. There have been many laws introduced and enforced upon campaign financing resulting in campaign finance reforms. Campaign finance reform is the common term for the political effort in the United States to change the involvement of money in politics, primarily in political campaigns. Campaigns include many expenditures, like the cost of traveling and the cost of purchasing advertisement. There are regulations on what types of donations to political parties and campaigns are acceptable. At the federal level, the primary source of campaign funds is individuals; and secondly comes political action committees, or PACs. Races for non-federal offices are governed by state and local law. Both of the major candidates running for Massachusetts’ 10^th District, Republican Jeff Perry and Democrat Bill Keating, were influenced and affected by campaign funding in their quest for capturing the seat.

            For both of the candidates running for the 10^th District of Massachusetts, as well as any other congressional election, raising money is an important aspect of the campaign trail. The Federal Election Committee lists all of the money each candidate running has received. This website lists Republican candidate Perry receiving single donations as much as $22,000 but also independent expenditures being spent against him for as much as $87,000 in one donation. OpenSecret, an organization that tracts political campaign contributions, found that Democratic candidate Keating raised more than $1.1 million and spent close to $950,000 over the course of his campaign trail. This site lists Republican Jeff Perry as raising $940,000 and spending about $700,000. Keating received $270,000 in PAC contributions and $900,000 in individual contributions, while Perry received $100,000 from PACs and $830,000 in individuals. Considering Keating won the election, this raises the question of how much of an impact campaign financing plays on the outcome of an election. Does the candidate with the most money always win, and is this fair?

            I hope you have learned quite a bit about congressional elections by following my coverage of the 10^th District of Massachusetts. It proved to be an exciting and stimulating campaign trail. I look forward to next time!

William R. Keating (D)

Raised:	$1,169,720
Spent:	$945,438
Cash on Hand:	$224,280
Last Report:	October 13, 2010

	PAC contributions	$268,435	(23%)
	Individual contributions	$898,165	(77%)
	Candidate self-financing	$0	(0%)
	Other	$3,120	(0%)

Jeff Perry (R)

Raised:	$943,633
Spent:	$709,929
Cash on Hand:	$233,703
Last Report:	October 13, 2010

	PAC contributions	$107,551	(11%)
	Individual contributions	$831,644	(88%)
	Candidate self-financing	$288	(0%)
	Other	$4,150	(0%)

Journalists on 2010 Midterm Elections

Below is an interesting video I found where Chris Cillizza, a respected political blogger, spoke about the 2010 midterm election results and challenges facing Republican and Democratic members in the 112th Congress. He also responded to questions from the audience. Source: C-Span.

 

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/296536-2

Critical Elections & Electoral Realignments

November 9, 2010

            After the results of the November 2^nd Midterm Election, we have learned that the Republicans have gained control of the House of Representatives. Because we have had a Democratic President, and the House and Senate controlled by the Democrats for the past two years, this marks a big change that will be occurring in our government in these next couple months. The Republicans gaining control of the House proves how this was a critical midterm election and how the country is realigning because of it.

To break it down, the House of Representatives now has 239 Republicans and 189 Democrats. The Republicans needed 39 seats to gain control and in the end gained over 60+ seats, therefore at the same time the Democrats lost 60 seats.  The reason why this is so monumental is because historically the shift in these numbers hasn’t been to this large of an extent. In 2006, the Democrats gained 31 seats and in 2008 they gained 24 seats. Since the Republicans gained over 60 seats this proves how much of an enormous impact this midterm election will have on our government when it officially changes in a couple months. The last three comparable surges like this once we are seeing now were during the Republican Revolution in 1994, where 54 seats changed, the Watergate Babies, when 48 seats changed, and a long time ago in 1948 when the Democrats picked up a large amount of seats. This once again reiterates how much of an impact this election will have considering so many seats changed and the Republicans took control of the House.

The House Republican Leader is John Boehner and he has a long road ahead of him as far as the things he wants to accomplish now that the Republicans are in control. Boehner vowed to fulfill his party's "pledge" to cut spending and reduce the size of government, saying he's willing to work with President Obama if he "respects the will of the people" and changes course. Now that the Democrats don’t have complete control over the government and the Republicans have taken over the House, it will be interesting to see the changes that are made over the course of the next two years!

*Map of the United States, Democratic vs. Republican states, after November 2, 2010 Midterm Election. Source: Fox News.

The Conclusion: Elections & Governance

November 2, 2010

William Keating, flanked by his wife, Tevis, and his daughter, Kristen, delivers his congressional victory speech at the Neighborhood Club in Quincy Tuesday night. The Democrat waged a blistering campaign against Republican Jeffrey Perry of Sandwich.CCT/Christine Hochkeppel

Jeffrey Perry, of Sandwich, sprints to the stage at the Cape Codder Resort in Hyannis Tuesday night to thank his supporters in his Republican bid for Congress.

Cape Cod Times/Merrily Cassidy

           

            Today is the day! It has finally arrived.  After following the race for the 10^th District of Massachusetts closely for the past few months, I was very excited to hear the outcome when the polls closed tonight. Because this is such a tight race, it was really hard to make a prediction this morning which candidate would end up pulling this one off. But in the end, the Democratic candidate Bill Keating ended up being victorious! This race marks who important the constituency influence is in Congress.

The Republican candidate, Jeff Perry, came up short tonight by only 5 percentage points. The race was tight throughout the night and the numbers were slow to come in throughout the district. According to the Cape Cod Times, Keating received 132,582 (47%) while Perry received 119,829 (42%). As far as the three independent candidates, Maryanne Lewis made the biggest impact, receiving 16,673 (6%). James Sheets, who was seen by some as a political move to take votes away from Keating, received 10,438 (4%). He was viewed in this light because he is friends with Republican Ron Kaufman who is a powerful figure that endorsed Perry. Lastly, Joseph van Nes, who was just barely old enough to even run for Congress, received 3,075 (1%).

This race gained national attention because it was the only highly contested race in Massachusetts. It is extremely important to recognize that although Perry did not beat Keating, this race once again shows the political changes in the usually very Democratic state of Massachusetts. Many say the state is shifting towards being a Republican state after years and years of a reputation of being extremely Democratic. In January of 2010, Republican Scott Brown won the late senator Ted Kennedy’s spot (who had held the seat since 1972) and this monumental event marked the change that is occurring throughout this state.

            Keating will be taking the place of U.S. Representative William Delahunt who decided to retire after seven terms in the House of Representatives. The results of this race show how important the constituency influence is in Congress and how every single vote has the ability to affect what is happening in Washington. Election Day was particularly important this year due to the closeness of so many races and the opportunity for one party or the other to gain or lose control of the House and the Senate.

Final Week on the Campaign Trail

October 27, 2010

Republican Jeff Perry of Sandwich, left, accursed Democrat William Keating of Quincy, right, are running for the 10th Congressional seat. Cape Cod Times Photos

            With only a week left until Election Day arrives, many times the polls and political websites are a great way to predict election results. In terms of election forecasts, the New York Times Race Rating describes Massachusetts’ 10^th Congressional District as a “tossup” race. The FiveThirtyEight is statistical model that I used in my research which takes into account very reputable polls like the UNH, the MassINC Polling Group, and NMB Research polls to predict election results. The FiveThirtyEight model predicts that this district has a 59% chance of a Democratic win which would mean success for the Democratic candidate Bill Keating. Based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising and past election returns and other indicators, there is a prediction of how the district will vote on November 2. Right now, as of October 26, the FiveThirtyEight Forecast is projecting the vote at 49.3% for Keating and 47.8% for Republican candidate Jeff Perry in terms of Projected Election results. Keating has a +1.5 lead over Perry. These numbers do a great job of showing just how close this election is going to be. With a race that has the opportunity to go either way, every single vote is going to be important.

In terms of the chance the candidates have for winning the seat, Keating has a 58.1% lead over Perry’s 42.0%. These figures are based on the chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment. Simply stated, this is the percentage chance that the candidate wins the race. These numbers reflect a very different election forecast because they are predicting the election in a different way. In my opinion the projected vote election results are a better way of judging who will take this district.

With only six days left until their fate is determined, Perry and Keating are spending their last week busily rallying to get voters to the polls. If the election forecasts are correct, Democratic candidate Bill Keating will be representing the people of the Massachusetts 10^th Congressional District. But with a race this close only time will tell!

Civility Takes Center Stage in Debate

The candidates for the 10th Congressional District, from left, James Sheets, Maryanne Lewis, Joseph van Nes, William Keating and Jeffrey Perry, participate in Thursday night's debate at Cape Cod Community College. The event was sponsored by the League of Women Voters and the Cape Cod Times. Cape Cod Times/Ron Schloerb

October 19, 2010

           Considering this week we were free to choose what to write our weekly entry on, I decided it was the perfect opportunity to talk about the debate that took place on Thursday October 15. The debate took place in West Barnstable at Cape Cod Community College which is interesting to me because it is the town that I live in.  

           According to the Cape Cod Times, the President of the League of Women Voters for Cape Cod asked the candidates for civility and all five of them cooperatively complied. The Republican candidate Jeff Perry and Democratic candidate William Keating set only inches apart. But topics that are normally up for discussion like debate over Perry’s controversial past as a police officer and Keating’s campaign contributions were never brought up.

            Perry and Keating were joined in the debate by three candidates running as Independents for the 10^th Congressional District of Massachusetts, Maryanne Lewis of Scituate, James Sheets of Quincy, and Joseph van Nes of Martha’s Vineyard. This was a rare opportunity for van Nes and Sheets to participate in the debate because they had been barred from other forums. Although there were a few jabs at one another, it was nowhere near the intense animosity that normally dominates the debate stage. Most of the drama occurred before the candidates even arrived at the forum, when the league officials asked the supporters to take off their buttons and turn their t-shirts inside out because they were attempting to “maintain a bipartisan atmosphere.”

            The candidates shared and discussed their views on things like Cape wind, unemployment, Social Security, and Cape Cod’s wastewater issues. Most of the candidates agreed that the federal government should assist the Cape communities by funding new sewer systems and solutions to clean up the bays.

            The two party candidates’ opinions varied on the Bush-era tax cuts. Democratic candidate Keating said he wants to restore the tax cuts for everyone, but the top 2% of income earners. He also wants to close military bases in Eastern Europe in order to start decreasing the national debt. Republican candidate Perry on the other hand, stated that Congress should’ve reinstated those cuts before it adjourned. This made it clear that the two party candidates’ views on major issues differ greatly.  With just a few weeks left we are getting down to the wire!

Democrat William Keating and Republican Jeffrey Perry shake hands at the end of Thursday night's 10th Congressional District forum at Cape Cod Community College. The independent candidates in the race, Maryanne Lewis, James Sheets and Joseph van Nes, also participated in the debate.Cape Cod Times/Ron Schloerb

Voter Behavior & Incumbency

Jeff Perry, the Republican candidate for the Massachusetts 10th congressional district, left, and Democratic House candidate Bill Keating, take part in a debate at the New England Cable News, NECN, network studio in Newton, Mass., Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2010. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

 

October 14, 2010

The race for the 10^th Congressional District is an interesting one in the way that there is no incumbent advantage. Because there is no incumbent it creates an opportunity from the start for both candidates to prevail. Therefore, the two party candidates running for this district Republican candidate Jeff Perry and Democratic candidate William Keating have an equal chance to win the election!

            On Wednesday, October 13 these two candidates squared off in a debate on NECN, New England Cable News network studio in Newton, Massachusetts. The three independent candidates weren’t invited to participate in this debate that was hosted by NECN’s Broadside with Jim Braude. One of the independent candidates, Maryanne Lewis tried to show up at the studio but she was turned away. Even so, she claimed she would be victorious in this race because of the opening she has due to Perry and Keating’s constant fighting. She claimed, “The voters are completely disenfranchised with our current two-party system” and that “they feel the nominees will toe party lines and will adhere to a national partisan agenda.”

            Inside the studio, Keating brought up the issue of Perry’s character and his incident as a Wareham police sergeant which I discussed last week during campaign scandals. But Perry fired back by telling the host Braude that he made no material misrepresentations on his 2007 application before the Massachusetts Board of Bar Examiners, even though police and court records show that he did not initiate the investigation into the officer as he claimed in his answers on that application. He said that he "disclosed all material facts and, at the end of this, it's all political mudslinging."

Perry shot back at Keating by raising the issue of campaign contributions. He discussed how Keating was given a $1,545 campaign donation by a defense attorney that was representing a man who was being prosecuted on an attempted murder charge by the Norfolk County District Attorney’s office. This is controversial because Keating is the District Attorney of this county so it is sketchy as to why he would be receiving funds from someone on the “other side.” But instead of directly responding to Perry’s accusation, Keating flipped it around and asked why Perry, who is a partner in a law firm that does some criminal work, gave donations to the district attorneys on the Cape and Islands and in Plymouth County. Perry simply responded by asking “I gave money to the DA?” State records show that Perry gave to both the Plymouth County and the Cape & Islands district attorney.

A race with no incumbent candidate creates an intense battle for this district. Clearly there are a lot of issues like this hidden under the rug and these political debates will definitely continue to shed light on them! SOURCE